people assume that obama will be better. so that may mean he doesn't have to do as well as all that to surprise people and say this guy is really up to the job. but the pressure is really on romney to change the direction of this race and to, you know, let people know it's not necessarily over. that can be done in various debates. but this first one is going to form the most impressions. >> john harwood says only twice have these televised debates seemed to shift the outcome of the race. in 2004 george w. bush went up against al gore. in gore's case, a strategist thought he lost that debate in the spin room. so i wonder, matt, how much of this is decided by what the candidates actually say? and how much by the pundits the day after? >> i give the american people some credit. i think they can listen and watch. and most evidence has shown that people start paying attention maybe around the conventions. they pay a lot of attention in the debates as well. what romney has to do is to get people who don't think obama has earned a